Forecasts are one of a number of bets that can be made on a range of sports but have their roots in, and remain most closely linked to, horse racing betting. The term “forecast betting” can be used generally to cover a range of related bets, including reverse forecasts, tricasts, combination tricasts and more, but here we will focus on the more specific meaning of the word forecast, or what is more accurately called a straight forecast.
In this sense, a straight forecast is a bet on who will finish first and second in an event, usually a horse race. The picks are made in a specific order too, so your bet might be, for example, Kauto Star to finish first and Denman to finish second. Only a Kauto-Denman one-two is enough for the bet to win and any other result at all will see you lose your stake. Here we take a closer look at a forecast, covering what they can be placed on and how they are placed, as well as how winnings are calculated and what happens in the event of things like a non-runner and a dead heat.
What Is a Forecast?
A forecast, straight forecast, or computer straight forecast (CSF), to use another name you may see, is, as said, a bet on who will finish first and second in the right order. There is not actually too much else to add! The majority of straight forecasts are placed on horse racing which lends itself nicely to the bet but, in reality, any sport that assigns first and second place could be used with forecast betting.
Forecasts can be used in a range of ways but one time they tend to be popular is when there is a very strong favourite in a race or event. For example, if a horse is priced at 1/6, few average punters are likely to back it, other than perhaps in an acca. However, if you include the selection in a forecast, picking one of its rivals to come second, those odds can be increased dramatically.
Reverse Forecasts
Forecasts are also used when punters may not be sure which horse will win but are confident they can name the two that will battle it out. In this scenario, a reverse forecast may be the better option and this is something we look at more closely in a dedicated piece about that bet.
However, in simple terms, a reverse forecast just combines two straight forecasts so that both combinations of two horses are covered. So, for example, if you feel confident that two horses, dogs or anything else are far better than the rest of the field, you might place two straight forecasts. For instance, you might back Kauto Star to win with Denman to finish second, and then separately Denman to win and Kauto Star to finish second.
How Are Forecast Winnings Calculated?
You can place forecasts at fixed odds, in which case your winnings work in exactly the same way they would with any bet. In horse racing, this has not been the traditional way of operating but increasingly many online betting sites do now offer this as standard. It keeps things simple and means you know what return you can expect and the prices are presented in a way punters are familiar with.
For example, in a race with two horses vying for favouritism, perhaps both priced around the 5/2 mark, or a little higher, the forecast for the two horses might be 10/1 or 12/1 perhaps, whichever horse you have as finishing first. In contrast, opt for one of those two to win but a 12/1 outsider to finish second and that price might jump to 20/1.
Bookies Concentrate on Market Leaders
Whichever horses you go for, you are given a price, just as you would for any bet, and your winnings are calculated using that. Note that sites that offer fixed odds forecasts may not list every possible combination. This is because even with just 15 horses, that would entail 225 possible combinations, many of which are highly improbable and unlikely to attract many bets. For this reason, the bookies tend to concentrate on the four or five market leaders, though odds for other forecasts may be available on request or by taking the computer straight forecast (CSF).
Computer Straight Forecast
CSF is another term for a straight forecast and derives from the way in which forecast returns were traditionally (and often still are) calculated. Rather than being given a fixed price in advance, bookies use an algorithm to calculate the returns for a £1 bet on the two runners that end up finishing first and second.
The CSF was created in 1977 and there have been various tweaks to the formula over the years. The main things it takes into account are the SPs of all the runners, the SPs of the horses that finish first and second and the number of runners in the race. You may hear talk of the “dividend”, which is another term used for the return. The CSF is only used for horse racing and greyhound racing and in these sports all bookies use the same return. In contrast, where they create their own fixed odds forecasts, be that for the races or anything else, they are free to offer whatever price they want, based on their own algorithms and odds.
The CSF formula is incredibly complex but can be estimated, with varying but reasonable degrees of accuracy, by simply multiplying the win odds of each selection together but reducing the odds of the winner by one point (so 2/1 would become evens, for example). There is much controversy over the CSF and sometimes it will throw up results that seem strange and may be very different from the above estimate. However, in general, this is a reasonable way to get some idea of what sort of return you might get.
What About an Exacta?
As well as fixed odds forecasts and traditional ones that rely on the CSF dividend, fans of tote betting can also opt for their equivalent, the Exacta. An Exacta is in essence exactly the same bet and you are predicting which horses (the Exacta is only available on horse racing) will finish first and second and in what order. However, like all tote bets, this is a pool bet, and your returns are not decided by the bookie, a computer algorithm or the odds of the horses in question.
As with all pool bets, winnings from an Exacta depend on the size of the total pool – how much was staked – and how much of that amount was placed on the winning selection. Market forces mean there tends to be a large correlation between the payouts for whatever method you use to place your bet.
However, among hardcore racing nuts, professional punters and forecast fans, debate rages as to whether the CSF or the Exacta offers the best returns. This in itself could be worthy of a separate article but the consensus seems to be that in general the Exacta is the way to go. There are many variables, such as the extent of any known draw bias, the type of race it is and, in particular, the field size. If this type of bet is something you intend to place regularly, further investigation is recommended. However, for a recreational punter placing the odd forecast, it probably doesn’t make a huge difference what method you opt for.
What Can I Place a Forecast On?
We have already looked at the key options for forecasts and horse racing is far and away their natural “home”. That said, you can place a forecast on sports as diverse as Formula 1, Moto GP, football, rugby, golf and reality TV. In fact, as said, any event that has clearly declined first and second places, can, in theory at least, be used for a forecast bet.
With football, a common forecast might be the top two in a league or the top two goalscorers in a tournament or over a season, whilst similar markets may be an option in rugby or any other sport that uses a league table. The application within motorsports is fairly obvious, as it is for any race. With the exception of motorsports and the biggest football leagues, forecasts may not always be clearly marketed as such and may be found under a selection of specials. Alternatively, for some sports you may need to request odds for the desired one-two bet you want to make through the bookie’s request-a-bet service (if they have this) or via customer support.
What If One Horse Is a Non-Runner?
Non-runners can be a frustrating part of horse racing betting. Should one of your two picks for a forecast bet, be it placed at fixed odds or via the CSF, be a non-runner, you will need to check with your bookmaker what happens next. Many sites will simply void the bet and you will see your stake returned. Indeed, should you place your forecast as an Exacta, this is what will happen.
Some may, however, simply allow your bet to continue as a win single on the remaining selection. Relatedly, where only one horse finishes a race, no forecast dividend can be declared. However, any forecasts that had that horse as their first-place pick will be settled as winning singles and settled at the SP. In addition, should a non-runner or non-runners reduce the field size to fewer than three, all forecast wagers will be voided. As with any bet, if you have any doubts over this, contact your bookie’s customer service team to check.
What About Dead Heats?
Dead heats are a relatively rare occurrence, as, in our experience at least, are winning forecast bets! The latter is justified by the high odds you usually get for landing such a wager but what this means is that your chances of hitting a forecast and the race being a dead heat are very, very small.
Nonetheless, it is worth being aware of what would happen in such an event. With a dead heat, as occurred in the 2021 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle in 2021, two straight forecast dividends are declared. Looking at the Fighting Fith we can see that the clear favourite, Epatante, and a big outsider, Not So Sleepy, dead-heated for first place.
The duo was sent off at SPs of 1/8 and 18/1 respectively. The winnings, or dividend, for the forecast are declared in terms of what your net win will be from a £1 stake and for this race it was declared as below.
Straight Forecast: £20.57 (2, 6), £10.78 (6, 2)
18/1 outsider Not So Sleepy was number two, with French horse Epatante number six. So anyone who backed Not So Sleepy to win with the jolly coming in second would make a net win of £20.57 for every pound they bet. Any punter who had the same horses but the other way round would only get around half of that, £10.78. This reflects the fact that it was deemed far less likely that Not So Sleepy would win, whilst Epatante was fully expected to be in the running.
In the event that you took fixed odds for your bet, then more normal dead heat rules would apply. As such, that price would not change but your stake would be divided, with half winning at full odds and half being classed as a losing bet.
Straight Forecast Conclusion
A straight forecast is a brilliant bet that can be used in a wide range of ways and can deliver some decent net wins when you get things right. Of course, landing the winner of a race is tough enough, so getting the horses to finish first and second, and in the right order too, is certainly far from easy.
Whilst forecasts are most popular with horse racing fans, they can also be placed on dog racing and a range of other sports too. Away from racing many straight forecasts are offered with fixed odds, often as specials or within their own dedicated market (such as a Premier League straight forecast bet on who will win the Premier League and which side will finish second).
Some punters may not consider these bets to be true straight forecasts but really, any bet where you are naming who will win and who will come next should be considered a forecast. So, if this is a bet you have never tried because you were not sure how it worked, hopefully now you feel confident enough to try your luck!