Betting on the goalscorer market has been one of the most popular betting markets for some time now. The concept of the bet is very simple in that all you need to do is select one play to either score first, last or at anytime within that match, depending on your bet.
The popularity of the bets are usually because the odds are high, especially for the first or last goalscorer. This is reflected in the difficulty of the bet, but there are ways in which you can maximise your potential winnings with these types of bets, which we will highlight within this article.
What we will say about any of these bets is that you need to be aware of prices on offer and any discrepancies that you might find. For example, if the odds for a player to score first are uncharacteristically high, then you may notice that the player might not be starting the game. Whilst you can still essentially win these types of bets with players coming off the bench, it increases the difficulty even more.
The Different Bets
The first goalscorer market is probably the most popular form of these types of bets and that’s usually because they will return the highest odds. Even for favourites in the market you can expect odds upwards of 5.00, with some of them ranging to as much as 100.00, usually reserved for defenders who don’t find the net very often.
For the last goalscorer bet to be successful you will need to find the player to score the last goal of the match. These are again fairly heavily priced, but we think that they are much harder to call as you can’t really predict which players will still be on the field at full time. The market is much more of a gamble than the other two and the odds do reflect this.
With this market you will need to select a player to score at anytime in the match. The odds for these types of bets will be much smaller than that of the first or last goalscorer, due to the period of time that a player could potentially score in. The anytime market is great for longer odds players (usually midfielders/defenders) who are likely to pick up a few chances as the game wears on.
Goalscorer Betting Strategy
The strategy that we have stated below will apply to all forms of these bet types, unless otherwise stated.
Find the obvious picks
For these bets we need to find out who we think are likely going to be creating chances for themselves throughout the game. The obvious place to start is that of the set piece takers for both direct free kicks and that of penalties. These players, at some point in the match, will definitely get at least one or chances per game, which is exactly what we are looking for; although ideally they get more! A good tip is to target teams who use either midfielders or even defenders for these.
For example, Everton have used defender, Leighton Baines, for both their direct free kicks and their penalties over the last couple of years. He usually chips in with around 5-10 goals per season as a result and whilst this isn’t massively high, the odds for him to score, because he is a defender, remain fairly high.
Finding strikers that not only are capable from scoring in open play situations but also take penalties and free kicks will also be a good option. But, bear in mind that you will get massively reduced odds on these types of players as a result.
Do the maths!
We can add some relatively simple maths into the bets that we are making with each form of the goalscorer market. To do this we first need to work out the probability that the bookmaker thinks the player will score. This can be worked out by simply dividing 1 by the decimal odds that are on display.
So, a 7.00 shot would be 1/7.00 = 14.28% chance that player will score.
Next we can take that probability and ask ourselves whether we think that provides a true reflection on the price in hand. Also, we need to work out if we think the player is capable of scoring in that specific match? Are they in good form? Do they take penalties or set pieces? The list could be pretty much endless and at the end of the day, it’s you who needs to work out if the percentage represents the chances of that player scoring.
With goals scored, players often follow a certain pattern against specific teams. Some players just tend to do well against some teams rather than others and this can be looked at by doing a little bit of research. For example, someone like Wayne Rooney has an unbelievable record with 14 goals from just 15 appearances against the magpies. Whilst it’s fair to say that Rooney isn’t as prolific as he once was, this is always going to be a solid bet.
This is pretty vague and rather obvious, but simply picking players that are in form will take you a long way with these types of bets. Backing Jamie Vardy in the 15/16 season would have made you some really nice coin when he went on a run of scoring in 11 successive Premier League games. Whilst the odds would have likely decreased for each game that went by, just backing on form alone would have definitely been a +ev bet.
General Betting Rules
Below we have listed some general rules for these types of markets and whilst they will apply to most bookmakers, we highly recommend that if you have an issue, to contact your bookmaker directly.
- Own goals will not affect the outcome of your first goalscorer bets and the goal scored after (assuming it’s not another own goal) will be the result for that market. This applies to the last goalscorer market also and does not count for anytime goalscorer should your selection score an won goal.
- If a player that you have backed comes off the bench after the first goal has been scored then your bet will be void for the first goalscorer market. However, it will still be running for anytime scorer unless your player doesn’t feature, where bets will again become void.
- The official goalscorer for most bookmakers will be finalised by the league or cup governing body for that match.